According to the Gottman & Levenson “Rebound from Marital Conflict and Divorce Prediction” article, couples were selected from a pool of applicants who responded to a newspaper advertisement to participate in a marriage compatibility study for couples with preexisting conflicts. This selection method created a condition that prevented the sample from being truly statistically random because 1) the couples had preexisting conflicts and 2) it implies that the couples were interested enough in their marital relationship to participate in the study.
The couples had three 15-minute conversations: (1) events of the day; (2) conflict resolution (discussion of a problem area of continuing disagreement); and (3) a pleasant topic. Only the conflict conversation and the pleasant topic were coded and analyzed on the basis of positive or negative affect.
One thing to consider is the order of these discussions. Holding a discussion on conflict resolution prior to the discussion on a pleasant topic might be problematic. The conflict discussion might elicit resentment in the other partner, which could spill over to the pleasant conversation. A 5 minute intermission between conversations was enforced, however I feel that the order of these conversations should have been random so that half the couples would have participated in the conflict conversation first, and the other half would have participated in the pleasant conversation first.
Regardless, the results showed that, as one might expect, conflict discussion generated more negative affect and less positive affect than the positive conversation. Using these results, the researchers used the affective data to predict which couples would be stable and which couples would be divorced in four years. Of those who could be reached for a follow up, they predicted 92.7% correctly.
92.7% is a very promising, statistically significant result; however, I have the following questions regarding the study’s accuracy:
Is four years an adequate timeframe to determine whether a newlywed couple will get a divorce?
The couples in the study were married in the 1980’s and the study was conducted in the late 1990’s. Divorce rates have fallen since (see figure below). Would the findings of this study remain consistent today (or at least proportional)?
Is positive or negative affect a strong enough measure of the emotional responses coded for (e.g. Anger, Joy, Disgust, Sadness, Fear, etc.)? Should some of these emotions carry more weight than others?
-John Merrifield
