According to the Gottman & Levenson “Rebound from Marital Conflict and Divorce Prediction” article, couples were selected from a pool of applicants who responded to a newspaper advertisement to participate in a marriage compatibility study for couples with preexisting conflicts. This selection method created a condition that prevented the sample from being truly statistically random because 1) the couples had preexisting conflicts and 2) it implies that the couples were interested enough in their marital relationship to participate in the study.
The couples had three 15-minute conversations: (1) events of the day; (2) conflict resolution (discussion of a problem area of continuing disagreement); and (3) a pleasant topic. Only the conflict conversation and the pleasant topic were coded and analyzed on the basis of positive or negative affect.
One thing to consider is the order of these discussions. Holding a discussion on conflict resolution prior to the discussion on a pleasant topic might be problematic. The conflict discussion might elicit resentment in the other partner, which could spill over to the pleasant conversation. A 5 minute intermission between conversations was enforced, however I feel that the order of these conversations should have been random so that half the couples would have participated in the conflict conversation first, and the other half would have participated in the pleasant conversation first.
Regardless, the results showed that, as one might expect, conflict discussion generated more negative affect and less positive affect than the positive conversation. Using these results, the researchers used the affective data to predict which couples would be stable and which couples would be divorced in four years. Of those who could be reached for a follow up, they predicted 92.7% correctly.
92.7% is a very promising, statistically significant result; however, I have the following questions regarding the study’s accuracy:
Is four years an adequate timeframe to determine whether a newlywed couple will get a divorce?
The couples in the study were married in the 1980’s and the study was conducted in the late 1990’s. Divorce rates have fallen since (see figure below). Would the findings of this study remain consistent today (or at least proportional)?
Is positive or negative affect a strong enough measure of the emotional responses coded for (e.g. Anger, Joy, Disgust, Sadness, Fear, etc.)? Should some of these emotions carry more weight than others?
-John Merrifield
Gottman and Levenson begin the procedures section of their study by describing the setting of their study with the phrase "couples arrived in the laboratory after having been apart for at least 8 hours", they then go on to say later in that same section of the article that "we wanted to begin our laboratory session with a reunion conversation that would seem natural". This seems like an inherent contradiction from the beginning, how can a laboratory setting seem natural? While they try to make up for this by saying that they wanted couples to begin their conversation talking about daily events because "it was the most natural way to start the couples conversation...", this seems to be a weak solution in recreating a sense of comfort most likely not present in a lab. A laboratory situation is far from a home setting. What kind of differences do you think would have been noticed if the events occurred at their respective homes? Would the results polarize much more? Would people more willing to display negative emotions while they think they are not being observed?
ReplyDeleteIn the article, the authors interestingly state that "at Time-1, couples who stayed married had less wife anger, less husband contempt/disgust, but also less wife affection than couples who divorced." Although cultures display the same basic emotions, the elicitations of those emotions may vary between cultures. How would these results translate cross-culturally? Compared to those who divorced, would a lessening (comparatively) of wife affection be as salient in other cultures as it would be to those couples in the study? How would the social emotions tie into this study?
- Guillermo Wippold (gmw399)
In the Gottman and Levenson article the study was completed with couples in their middle ages (late 20's and early 30's). In the present day there are couples getting married at a much younger age, and much older age. Could age be a factor in predicting divorce patterns?
ReplyDeleteThe study also didn't take into account the previous years of the relationship. How the couple met, how long they dated before they got married, etc. This data might have great implications for what their marriage would be like. I believe it might affect the rate of the husband's disgust/anger and the wife's anger/affection level depending upon the amount of years the couple has been together. (not only in marriage)
The study was conducted in Indiana. Might the results vary across the United States depending on the values of the majority of the state?
Responding to Jessica, I wonder, if it is true that people are getting married much younger, I feel that is not true in this day and age. I feel that people are getting married at a much later age these days versus younger. So would that have an influence, the fact that people are getting married and starting families later on in life?
ReplyDeleteIn response to Guillermo, I feel that a cross-cultural study would also be really interesting. In many cultures it is unacceptable to divorce and so they don't. They maybe just put with each other. I would definitely be interested in seeing how this study would turn out, if it was studied across cultures comparatively.
In the article they discussed the conflict discussion followed by a positive discussion. What would happen if they had the positive discussion before the negative? Would it leave them with a bad sense and cause more arguments?
I also wonder how affective their conflict management techniques were? If they presented them with good conflict management resolutions, wouldn't that help the marriage last?